Confusingly, SpaceX has announce to the launch market it is stopping flying workhorse Falcon 9 rocket in the near future even while the market for launch services is at an all-time-high.

I get they they're trying to transition to their larger Starship rocket, but right now the rocket only achieved orbit about two weeks ago for the first time. Further, the current version of Starship can't launch traditional satellites. It is designed specifically for SpaceX's "flatpack" style of satellite which no one else uses at this time. So even SpaceX says "Starship is open for customers!", it can't fly the current payloads customers have today.

So if SpaceX is having this much money trouble it seems like bad business to stop flying the profitable Falcon 9 rocket when the launch market is screaming to buy more of it at top dollar.

it seems like bad business

I thibk that's just kinda part and parcel of employing Musk in any capacity

it is stopping flying workhorse Falcon 9 rocket in the near future

oh, just when those TeleSat Canada LEOs need to be launched...

I think the TeleSat satellites for Canada are already fully booked on Falcon 9 so those should still be going. SpaceX isn't booking any new flights for launch occurring after mid 2028. So the order book is closed and customers already booked will still fly. This is kind of how it works in the launch industry where you have to buy your launch years in advance. However any new payloads from customers will have to go elsewhere.

Well, stopping launch support for the non flatpack style drives business toward the flatpack. I can only assume they make money off that somehow.

Well, stopping launch support for the non flatpack style drives business toward the flatpack.

Sure, but the satellite procurement, design, and manufacturing timeline is many years long. If driving the industry toward flatpack satellites is what SpaceX wanted, then they should be publishing specs, guidelines, and requirements that flatpack satellites need to meet to fly on Starship. So far, I haven't seen SpaceX do any of that. Further, you'd give your customers a longer lead time to complete the traditional cube shaped satellites that are already in the development pipeline so those could be set to launch on Falcon 9.

Neither of those things has happened. If SpaceX wants customer to adopt their new way, they're going about it very poorly.

The first one, yeah, I would expect them to have released the specs. So that is odd. The other. Nah, why should they care about thier customers. This is Elon we are talking about.

Make laws that banks can't lend against imaginary wealth. Let billionares pay for their own shit.

Just make borrowing against it "realise" it for tax purposes. You want to borrow against $100M in stock. The stock has now been realised and taxes are owed on it. It would close the massive loophole that big business and billionaires abuse to avoid paying their share.

Right. If it can serve as collateral, it's real enough to be taxed

Yes, let's blame all of that on the elections... They had shit bond yields before that already, it just got worse.

"Companies have been reckless doing whatever the hell they wanted but now with the smallest amount of scrutiny everyone panics"

Tells me you don't have a strong business then.

If there's one thing the response to the 2008 Crash taught the people which have most of the money is that governments can and will have the general population endure massive pain in order to save the value of the Assets of the billionaires (and thus their wealth) and people won't do jack shit about it beyond a few demonstrations where they peacefully complain and still get assaulted by some of the most violent and sadistic pigs around.

So I expect this is entirelly about a change in the expectations of how likely public money is going to be used to save AI "investors" and AI companies (all that paid with Austerity for the riff-raff) from all the reckless done by those companies and not at all about those with all the money suddenly discovering that the industry was reckless - I'm pretty sure they were well aware of that already.

Smallest amount of scrutiny that hasn't even happened yet and isn't even guaranteed if Jeffries and Schumer get in the way

Yeah, this is the reaction to just a tiny change in the investor expectations on the industry being under scrutiny and not just unconditionally saved with taxpayer's money like in the 2008 Crash around (when, by the way, there was a Democrat administration in power which unconditionally save the entire industry that had fucked things up massivelly, thus protecting the value of the Assets of the ultra-rich, hence the huge growth in inequality in the following decade).

SpaceX going bust would be so awesome!!

im a bit conflicted. hate the sattelites but like the reusable rockets. I mean the tech is already out there so im sure someone would take up the slack. unfortunately there are likely to be half a dozen different sattelite internet swarms eventually regardless.

I mean the tech is already out there so im sure someone would take up the slack.

The Chinese companies are running with Falcon 9 style reuse. Additionally, US company Blue Origin has successfully flown a scaled-up Falcon 9 style reuse rocket. US company Rocketlab also has a slightly scaled up Falcon 9 style reuse rocket in the works scheduled to fly for the first time in 2027.

Well they could go bust and then the government could atwp in and nationalize them for penneies on the dollar.

username checks out

I'm sure Musk will ask for a bailout.

And probably get it.

He will get it. Space X is now the only domestic source of volume orbit launch capabilities. It's a "national security issue" if it goes under. which is probably why Musk has been tying all his other failing garbage like XAI into SpaceX.

Nationalize it.

It makes sense. The Americans' space program started with Nazi scientists, so now they can continue with a Nazi businessman.

Any bailout should come with two big conditions.

1 - spin it back off into its own company - rockets one company, telecom one company, everything else can go fuck off.

2 - elon has to sell off all stakes in the rocket company.

That'd be pretty funny considering that Democrats will control the house and senate.

How about the federal government take itbover instead. National security and all.

The bubble has been pumped up so high and for so long that we're not even near the point were those who jumped into it in January are actually losing money, much less those who jumped into it 2 or more years ago started fearing that they'll lose money in their "investment".

You do see the professionals changing their posture (especially in the Money Markets), but the rout hasn't started yet, IMHO.

Nvidia is down for the year. Those who jumped into investment rounds this year in OpenAI and ANT are praying to break even. Other than the 3 hyperscallers and SpaceX (pre IPO), all heavily down this year.

archive won't load, but SpaceX CDS are at 3%/year. Comparable to Oracle. There is massive fundraising demand this week, and its $40b GPU SPV (Spacex just pays rent, but it is 5% principal + whatever interest rate is finalized) is pricing at over 8%, and hasn't sold out, and so is likely to increase in interest rate. It's moving absurdly fast with even higher datacenter capacity with little organic AI revenue, and an environment where hyperscallers (MSFT) is cancelling renewals and other projects because they are full. Even more absurd terrafab moneypit is noob thinking he can compete with TSMC.

Extreme corrupt financial backing is there for his political interference, but his companies have been overvalued on his fraud for years.